History and gaming enthusiast from Finland. Also into politics and culture.

Historiasta ja peleistä kiinnostunut pirkanmaalainen. Seuraan myös politiikkaa ja kulttuuria.

Striimailen pelejä viikottain Youtubeen, asialinjalla ja ilman turhaa kohkausta: https://youtube.com/@NukeminHerttua

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Joined 1 year ago
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Cake day: July 2nd, 2023

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  • I think you seriously underestimate Russia. They have a helluva lot of manpower, natural resources and money. They are also able to import western sanctioned materials via China and Central Asian countries.

    Russian society is being organized to resemble a war economy. There are new laws that make drafting more difficult to avoid and with more severe punishments. Also they have just raised the age for conscription. They are playing the long game and preparing for future eg. mobilizing the whole society under one delirious cause. Late 20s, early 30s it is totally possible that Russia has a better military capacity than it currently has. Sure, the life of average Russian will suck way more than it does now, but there’s not really an option if you want to keep your job in a tank factory and avoid going to prison. You have no choice but to participate.

    Putin has made his mind and the struggle in Ukraine only makes him more determined that He is fighting an existential battle with the west, especially since he believes that democracies and western liberal lifestyle are on a path of inevitable decline.

    Sure, if he is stupid enough He might start a conflict with NATO, believing that the alliance will break when under pressure. He might think that He is prepared and the west is weak. And while there’s 95% change that he is mistaken, it doesn’t matter if he himself believes the crap the yesmen around him and He himself are feeding him. That’s the real risk and to me, a defeat in Ukraine makes this scenario less likely to happen.


  • If beaten in Ukraine, there is a chance that the trajectory of the Russian Federation changes. Currently they are trying to fulfill a senseless imperial project which is doomed to eventually fail.

    With defeat in Ukraine, there’s a chance that the growing destabilization within Russia leads to abandonment of the imperial dream. It might also force a change in the leadership albeit not necessarily for the better. What it would do however, is to show that the Putinist system is not the only option and that the actions it has taken, are in fact harmful for Russia and Russians. In a way, it opens up a way to politicize the apolitical Russian public.

    In the semi long/long term this would benefit the population as it would not only challenge the idea of Russia as an Empire, but also allow for a less authoritarian model of governance.


  • Well, this is one possible outcome, although not necessary. For example Finland was able to patch it’s relations with Russia after 2 brutal wars with tens of thousands of casualties and a huge chunk of lost land. Of course the friendly relations were somewhat forced and a survival mechanism for a small country in Cold War era (Russia had a hold on Finland while Finland navigated in it’s position to gain as much political freedoms it could) but it genuinely got rid of open hostilities between the countries.

    Even after the cold war ended and up to today, majority of the population in Finland has not had a revanchist opinion towards Russians, albeit they were not fully trusted either. Finns learned to live as neighbors and in peace while preparing just in case.

    So while it is probably likely that loosing land would cause a negative nationalistic turn in Ukraine and grievances towards Russia, it’s not set in stone. Actually I am way more concerned that if Russia can claim a victory, they expand their delirious imperial/quasifascist project and escalate the conflict with the west further.




  • I think there is a widely shared misconcpetion in the West that the models and values of a society and governance are universal. This is a very colonial mindset, even when the intent is benevolent.

    Note that I am not an expert on Afghan society so if someone knows better, please correct me.

    My perspective is, and like others here have pointed out, that Afghanistan has never been a state in the sense we understand states being. Concepts such as central government, civil society, national army were brought in by the English in the 19th century. Small parts of the society were organized based on western ideals (in supervision of the Brits) but most of the country remained decentralized, traditionalist and tribal. This is not to say that this is somehow worse, it is an ancient way of life with very rich traditions and it is something that has kept people in there are alive for centuries. For big part of the country things like nationalism, democracy, institutions, politics etc. are just indifferent.

    With background like this it’s no wonder Afghans were not able to build a society that mimicis western ideals. 20 years (or even 50) is a relatively short time when compared to traditions and interpretations of religion that have existed for hundreds of years. Sure, some people benefitted from the British, Soviet and the US presence, but i’d guess those that genuinely wanted to turn Afghanistan into a modern state, were in a great minority. In a society based on family and tribal ties, things like politics or civil society don’t mean much if anything. Ethics are very different from the European traditions too.

    Unfortunately Taleban is the only group there with power and organization that can form anything resembling a centralized nation state. The problem is that they are fundamentalist lunatics. While there are people who oppose them, it is very difficult to get enough people organized and overcome the fear of brutal punishments by the regime.

    Because the civil society is small and disorganized, most of the people are apolitical and couldn’t care less how the society is organized. I’d wager that most men in any position care about making a living and being left alone. Those who don’t, try to leave the country. There just isn’t a structure that allows for a major rebellion.


  • Sorry, I’m bad at math (even though it was a rhetorical question) 😃

    I’d like to point out however, that while having 4 wives might be allowed in some branches of Islam, there are others where this is not the case. So while Taliban might allow it (and I don’t know whether they do as I am not an expert, but I’m currently too lazy to check it out), not everyone in the Muslim world does.

    I say this because us living in the west have a very limited view of Islam and generally it is bad to enforce stereotypes. So this was not aimed against you, just pointing out something that bothers me in general 🙂



  • Depends who you are, I guess. For women, leaving alone is very difficult if not impossible as you would need a male guardian to escort you.

    As a man it it’s easier but comes down to the money. Most people there are very poor and in a country where family an tribal ties are really important, it is very difficult to pack up your things and leave.

    Also, poor Afgan refugees are not received very well by other countries. They are also afraid of the lunacy of the fundamentalist religious movement spreading.

    Like any country Afganistan has wealthy people too and for them leaving is probably the easiest.

    On general note, Afganistan is a prime example of what a fundamentalist leadership and religion can lead to. Can happen in other countries and outside of Islam too. We should be aware of this.







  • What strawman did i craft?

    See your own post above😀

    No it isn’t. As you will see when this ends with both a Ukraine and a Russia existing afterwards. This nonsense is just devoid of any realistic understanding of the circumstances that created this war or any general understanding of how wars end.

    For Ukraine it is first and foremost a defensive war to survive as a sovereign state. It is not a matter of an opinion. Second aim is to cement their country as part of “the West” via EU and Nato. If you wish, I’d be to happy to hear what you think Ukraine is fighting for.

    God I do hate the way americans speak “free and transparent” christ. It’s like talking to a robot. The current state was created in a US backed far right revolution. Under no circumstances can you call its elections “free”. The left in particular was not allowed to participate in the 2019 election, candidacy being refused. You can not call an election “free” while banning the left from participation and only putting up a bunch of utterly shit candidates that nobody wants, the man had a 31% approval rating and every single poll since the war began excludes the regions that matter most - Donetsk, Luhansk and Crimea.

    Yeah, I don’t like the way most Americans speak either. That however, has nothing to do with our discussion here (another straw man, yay!).

    The rest of your argument is just parroting what Russia has been saying at least since the beginning of their invasion. I suppose you are Ukrainian, since you know so much about how people there feel about Zelensky and the leadership? Because the stuff the rest of see from reliable, many times first hand sources, paints a very different picture from yours.

    There is nothing I can ever say to get you to stop using this as an excuse. For you, calling anything “pro Russia” enables you to close your brain down and ignore reality.

    Using what as an excuse? Calling a Russian supporter pro Russian? Blimey!

    Absolutely nobody here has said that. You are now literally making shit up. Russia is a capitalist shithole and I want to see its end just as much as America.

    Now we found a common ground of sorts. Although I am sure our view on how that can be achieved differ quite alot. Sorry that I assumed too much, but this is a common phenomenon that I see a lot on internet.

    I have read more than you my “left leaning” (lmao “hello fellow socialists!”) friend. Good for you then! Go you!

    Once again, you’re being a tit. You have invented a cartoon character in your head to imagine me as instead of actually listening to any of the words I say. I think this conversation is no longer worth wasting my time with.

    To be honest, that comment was not directly aimed at you, but to anyone identifying as a leftist and siding with Russia and repeating their talking points. I honestly believe there is a huge contradiction in there. I could’ve been clearer, but I still stand by those words.

    And just to make it clear, I did not wish to cause you any frustration or even win an argument. I just wanted to point out things in your arguments that I find peculiar or simply misreprestative of the situation with Ukraine and Russia. I am also genuinely interested in understanding where such opinions stem from. So no, I don’t see you as a cartoon character, just a fellow lemming 😘


  • You really seem to enjoy crafting strawman arguments.

    • Ukraine is fighting an existential war. Boosting nationalism is a way to cope with that and survive. I hate that nationalistic shit myself, but in their situation Ukrainians are both allowed to express themselves in a nationalistic way as well as fight back. And from the viewpoint of opposing nationalism: the fact that Ukrainians are more nationalistic, was mostly caused by drum roll Russia.

    • Ukrainian rulers appointed by the Ukrainians in free and increasingly transparent elections. In representative democracy, it’s the representatives job to decide on behalf of the pople. Also, Zelensky is hugely popular president with support from the opposition too. Most of Ukraine support their leaders and they have a mandate from the people (especially the president).

    • You seem to confuse being leftist and a pro russian. The way I see it, they closed pro-Russian stations, some of which claimed themselves to be leftist. During a war, anti-war channels usually tend to go silent too (wonder why).

    As a person many would call a left leaning socialist myself, I find it astonishing how some self-proclaimed leftists are hell bent on claiming that Russian Federation was somehow a champion of socialist values. In fact, it’s pretty much the exact opposite of those and has nothing to do with leftist or socialist values.

    Also, if you identify as a leftist and support Russia to oppose the US or “the West”, you really need to:

    1. Read more about socialism, history and contemporary russian state.
    2. Look into the mirror and ask yourself: “Do I really want to side with Russia? Am I really a leftist?”. If you answer “yes” to both of these, return to point 1 and try again after some time.