The drop is slowing down considerably:
Month | Users | Change from previous month | in % |
---|---|---|---|
Mar | 53687 | N/A | N/A |
Apr | 51298 | -2389 | -4.5% |
May | 48832 | -2466 | -4.8% |
Jun | 48472 | -360 | -0.74% |
Jul | 47297 | -1175 | -2.4% |
Aug | 47876 | +579 | +1.2% |
Sep | 47227 | -649 | -1.4% |
Oct | 45037 | -2190 | -4.6% |
Nov | 44837 | -200 | -0.44% |
And given that March was a peak, I’m tempted to interpret it as newbies not sticking around. I think that it’ll plateau around 40k users, then provided that the conditions remain the same it won’t increase or decrease.
That’s why I say that it’s stable - the core userbase will likely stick around.
That said, these numbers may particularly be bad, e.g. if anyone left Lemmy and went to Mbin and/or PieFed, then I think they would not be counted in those charts?
They wouldn’t be counted but I don’t think that this introduces a lot of inaccuracy. Mbin has 1.7k MAUs, and PieFed has 104.
The number of instances dropping is far more concerning IMO. It means that smaller instances have a hard time becoming sustainable.
My concerns about the “immigration leftover” is not their opposing views, but their behaviour. I don’t want to deal with the “waaah the world revolves around my belly, why are you too stupid to understand that?” crowds and their incessant whining.