The Iranian government has belittled the scale and effectiveness of the Israeli attack on its military sites, but hardliners in the parliament insisted the strikes breached Iranian red lines and required a swift response, preferably at a time when Israel is already enmeshed in Lebanon and Gaza.
The internal Iranian debate on how to respond to the long-awaited Israeli attack turns on whether to treat Israel’s breach of Iranian national sovereignty as too grave to be ignored, or instead to heed the advice coming from the region and from the US to acknowledge the relatively limited nature of the attack and to step back from the brink by not launching reprisals.
In making its decision, the Iranian political elite will have to weigh conflicting political, diplomatic and military pressures. But the initial tone from the government was one of patriotic pride at the performance of the air defences, rather than calls for immediate retribution. Some even claimed that the air defences proved better than Israel’s Iron Dome.
Both sides taking the off-ramp, returning to the shadow war, and not attacking each other directly.
Yeah, this is going back to saber-rattling. Let’s hope it stays there. On both sides.
So, the smart move for Iran is to go heads down till they have their nukes ready, which should be soon.
Israel has their hands full, and honestly probably can’t stop Iran in any meaningful way, what they really want is the US to get deeply involved, which I’m sure is what Trump promised them.