Young Canadians are holding fast to the dream of buying a home, even as overall rates of ownership are falling sharply, according to a new poll released by Scotiabank Tuesday.

The polling shows a steep decline in young homeowners over the past three years as housing unaffordability issues dogged would-be buyers. Some 26 per cent of Canadians aged 18 to 34 own a home today, down from 47 per cent in 2021, according to the poll.

At the same time, 29 per cent of respondents in that age group reported they were living at home with parents or family, up nine percentage points from three years ago. The number of renters was similarly higher among youth, up to 43 per cent from 29 per cent in 2021.

  • tal@lemmy.todayEnglish
    21·
    14 days ago

    Ah, the Canadian housing bubble Wikipedia article talks about some of the points I raised:

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Canadian_property_bubble

    Risks

    Canada is a nation heavily dependent on the real estate industry which accounted for roughly 14% of its GDP in 2020[126] and over 20% in 2023.[127] There is a high risk that if investor sentiment changes, buyer demand may drop significantly, triggering a vicious cycle of prices declines that snowball.[128] Canadians hold increasing mortgage debt (almost $2 trillion in June 2021,[129] $2.16 trillion residential in 2023[130]) while unemployment rose and net employment fell in 2024.[131]

    That “snowball” is referring to a bubble popping. And this also mentions the five-year mortgage factor:

    Short-term fixed-rate mortgages are dominant in Canada,[132] typically with the interest rate locked in for five years. This contrasts with the United States, where most homeowners hold long-term fixed-rate mortgage contracts. If the reset rate in five, ten, or fifteen years is higher than in the past, there will be a large risk of default for Canadians with high amounts of debt. A July 2017 report noted that uninsured mortgages represent the greatest risk to the financial industry.[133] A decreasing number of Canadian mortgages are backed by insurance, from over 60% in 2012[134] to less than 22% in 2022.[135] Drops in home prices could cause homeowners to owe more on their mortgages than the house is currently valued, which is known as negative equity.[136][128]